In this thesis topic we would like to explore a biologically inspired extension to simple genetic programming principles (already biologically inspired), and subsequently qualitatively and quantitatively assess the performance characteristics of the design against the simple GP benchmark model. The models will be generated as security portfolios on stock market price data and aim specifically at maximising the Sharpe ratio (our measure of fitness) of the individual modelled portfolios. The Sharpe ratio is an effectively gauge of return accounting for risk and measures the efficiency of a portfolio of risk bearing assets.
The motivation behind this topic is the gene-centric view of evolution extensively developed by Richard Dawkins in The Selfish Gene and The Extended Phenotype. Evolution has traditionally considered individual organisms as the units of selection in its organism-centric point of view, through which the genes that manifest into the organism's phenotype are selected for or against on a high level. In contrast, the gene-centric point of view regards the gene as the basic unit upon which selection acts. Genes operate both in competition and synergy with its immediate population of other genes, and determines its overall fitness from both this genetic environment on different levels and the phenotypic interaction of the host organism with the host's macro-environment (Dawkins, 1976).
Portfolio optimisation is a difficult problem and current approaches do not scale well, therefore probabilistic approximations may be useful. Additionally, financial data is rich and readily accessible.
|