|_par 10000 ..PAR IS 10000 MAXIMUM VARIABLES IS 1000 |_set nowarnskip |_* |_* APRIL 2004 - FINAL REVIEW VERSION |_* THIS FILE USES 5X5 IPCC GRID DATA AND STATION DATA TO TEST FOR REMOVAL OF |_* NONCLIMATIC INFLUENCES ON TEMPERATURES |_* |_* THIS RUN READS IN 1979-2000 STATION/TROP/ECON DATA FROM GDPTEMP03.TXT |_* READS IN 1979-2000 IPCC GRIDDED DATA ANN/WARM/COLD FROM TREND7901.TXT |_* AND READS IN 1979-2000 MISSING CELL COUNTS ANN/WARM/COLD FROM MISSING.TXT |_* |_* THEN DOES GLS REGRESSIONS ON CROSS-SECTIONS OF TREND PATTERNS |_* |_* TO RUN THIS FILE ON A UNIX SYSTEM WITH SHAZAM PUT THIS FILE INTO A FOLDER WITH |_* DATA FILES (USE LOWERCASE) GDPTEMP03.DIF, TRENDS7900.TXT, MISSING_7900.TXT |_* THEN RUN COMMAND LINE >shazam gsmod gsmod.out |_* THIS WILL READ COMMANDS AND DATA AND PUT OUTPUT LINES INTO gsmod.out |_* |_* |_* Read in data |_* |_read(gdptemp03.dif) / dif UNIT 88 IS NOW ASSIGNED TO: gdptemp03.dif ..NOTE..DIF FILE HAS 14 COLUMNS AND 219 ROWS DIF FILE CONTAINS VARIABLES: STREND MTREND PRESS DPRESS WATER LAT POP INC79 GDPGROW COAL80 COALGROW SURFMISS SOVIET LIT79 ...SAMPLE RANGE IS NOW SET TO: 1 218 |_read(trends7900.txt) glat glon gtrend gapsep gocmr UNIT 88 IS NOW ASSIGNED TO: trends7900.txt 5 VARIABLES AND 218 OBSERVATIONS STARTING AT OBS 1 |_read(missing_7900.txt) mlat mlon gamiss gapsepm gocmrm UNIT 88 IS NOW ASSIGNED TO: missing_7900.txt 5 VARIABLES AND 218 OBSERVATIONS STARTING AT OBS 1 |_genr obs=time(0) |_* |_* Generate NH/SH Cold-warm Season Data |_* Note dum(lat)=1 if Lat positive, 0 otherwise |_genr nh=dum(lat) |_genr sh=1-nh |_* |_genr gwarm=sh*gocmr+nh*gapsep |_genr gcold=sh*gapsep+nh*gocmr |_* |_genr gwmiss=sh*gocmrm +nh*gapsepm |_genr gcmiss=sh*gapsepm+nh*gocmrm |_* |_* NOTE VARIABLE TITLES: |_* STREND = ANNUAL TREND IN SURFACE STATIONS |_* GTREND = ANNUAL TREND IN GRID CELLS |_* MTREND = ANNUAL TREND IN MSU DATA |_* |_* GWARM = APR-SEP TREND IN GRID CELLS |_* GCOLD = OCT-MAR TREND IN GRID CELLS |_* |_* GCMISS = MISSING VALUES IN GRID CELL RECORD IN COLD SEASON |_* GWMISS = MISSING VALUES IN GRID CELL RECORD IN WARM SEASON |_* |_* Generate surf-trop differences |_* |_genr stdiff=gtrend-mtrend |_* |_* Put Coal into billion short tons |_genr coal80=coal80/1000 |_* |_* Put Scale79 into billions US$ |_genr scale79=pop*inc79/1000000 |_* |_* Put Pop into 100,000s |_genr pop=pop/100000 |_* |_* |_* |_* Test effects of missing values on mean trend |_stat strend mtrend NAME N MEAN ST. DEV VARIANCE MINIMUM MAXIMUM STREND 218 0.32486 0.45591 0.20785 -1.5501 1.4333 MTREND 218 0.17702 0.22164 0.49123E-01 -0.20965 0.75825 |_* |_skipif(gtrend.eq.-99) |_stat strend gtrend mtrend /pcor NAME N MEAN ST. DEV VARIANCE MINIMUM MAXIMUM STREND 205 0.34748 0.44295 0.19620 -1.2376 1.4333 GTREND 205 0.27010 0.23676 0.56053E-01 -0.47000 0.91000 MTREND 205 0.19067 0.22120 0.48928E-01 -0.20965 0.75825 CORRELATION MATRIX OF VARIABLES - 205 OBSERVATIONS STREND 1.0000 GTREND 0.51652 1.0000 MTREND 0.56763 0.64888 1.0000 STREND GTREND MTREND |_delete skip$ VARIABLE SKIP$ IS DELETED 218 WORDS RELEASED |_* |_skipif(gtrend.gt.-99) |_stat strend mtrend NAME N MEAN ST. DEV VARIANCE MINIMUM MAXIMUM STREND 13 -0.31737E-01 0.52602 0.27670 -1.5501 0.60471 MTREND 13 -0.38191E-01 0.56258E-01 0.31650E-02 -0.16404 0.83879E-01 |_delete skip$ VARIABLE SKIP$ IS DELETED 218 WORDS RELEASED |_* |_* Generate additional covariates |_genr latr=lat*3.1415926/180 |_genr abslat=abs(latr) |_genr coslat=sin(2*latr)/(2*sin(latr)) |_genr cosablat=sin(2*abslat)/(2*sin(abslat)) |_* |_********************************************************** |_* |_* Table 2: Descriptive statistics |_* For GTREND use above table as |_* some vals are -99 (missing) |_* |_********************************************************** |_* |_stat strend gtrend mtrend stdiff gwarm gcold & | press water lat pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow & | inc79 gdpgrow soviet lit79 & | surfmiss gamiss gwmiss gcmiss NAME N MEAN ST. DEV VARIANCE MINIMUM MAXIMUM STREND 218 0.32486 0.45591 0.20785 -1.5501 1.4333 GTREND 218 -5.6497 23.563 555.21 -99.000 0.91000 MTREND 218 0.17702 0.22164 0.49123E-01 -0.20965 0.75825 STDIFF 218 -5.8267 23.508 552.64 -99.084 0.82239 GWARM 218 -3.8392 19.795 391.82 -99.000 0.99000 GCOLD 218 -5.1830 22.697 515.15 -99.000 1.3900 PRESS 218 1014.9 4.9896 24.896 987.00 1029.0 WATER 218 0.47248 0.50039 0.25039 0.0000 1.0000 LAT 218 25.222 32.328 1045.1 -75.500 80.000 POP 218 5.8539 15.059 226.77 0.0000 116.74 SCALE79 218 5.2824 15.526 241.05 0.0000 113.89 COAL80 218 0.13083 0.23158 0.53628E-01 0.0000 0.70132 COALGROW 218 1.0374 5.4106 29.275 -16.809 18.768 INC79 218 6.4389 4.9776 24.777 0.31600 26.710 GDPGROW 218 0.52232 1.7135 2.9361 -8.7690 5.3700 SOVIET 218 0.19725 0.39884 0.15907 0.0000 1.0000 LIT79 218 79.817 26.984 728.11 8.0000 99.000 SURFMISS 218 23.537 28.238 797.41 0.0000 138.00 GAMISS 218 5.4633 24.736 611.88 0.0000 221.00 GWMISS 218 2.4587 11.016 121.36 0.0000 95.000 GCMISS 218 2.9404 13.757 189.25 0.0000 132.00 |_* |_* |_*********************************************************** |_*********************************************************** |_* |_* Global Annual sample: Table 4 |_* |_* |_*********************************************************** |_*********************************************************** |_* |_* |_********************************************************** |_* |_* Table 4 Column 1: Station Data |_* |_********************************************************** |_* |_ols strend press water cosablat REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 75 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 218 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= STREND ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 R-SQUARE = 0.1560 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.1442 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.17787 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.42175 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 38.065 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.32486 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = -119.103 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 214 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.16598E-01 0.5809E-02 2.857 0.005 0.192 0.1817 51.8548 WATER 0.10646 0.5791E-01 1.838 0.067 0.125 0.1168 0.1548 COSABLAT -0.73014 0.1412 -5.170 0.000-0.333 -0.3256 -1.7161 CONSTANT -16.014 5.907 -2.711 0.007-0.182 0.0000 -49.2936 |_* |_* |_ols strend press water cosablat & | pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & | soviet surfmiss lit79 /hetcov REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 91 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 218 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= STREND ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 USING HETEROSKEDASTICITY-CONSISTENT COVARIANCE MATRIX R-SQUARE = 0.2595 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.2162 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.16292 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.40363 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 33.399 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.32486 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = -104.846 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 205 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.15801E-01 0.1026E-01 1.540 0.125 0.107 0.1729 49.3639 WATER 0.97651E-01 0.5262E-01 1.856 0.065 0.129 0.1072 0.1420 COSABLAT -0.38062 0.2299 -1.656 0.099-0.115 -0.1697 -0.8946 POP 0.22897E-02 0.3953E-02 0.5793 0.563 0.040 0.0756 0.0413 SCALE79 -0.12829E-02 0.4019E-02 -0.3192 0.750-0.022 -0.0437 -0.0209 COAL80 -0.45434 0.1616 -2.812 0.005-0.193 -0.2308 -0.1830 COALGROW -0.53801E-02 0.4068E-02 -1.323 0.187-0.092 -0.0639 -0.0172 INC79 0.39659E-01 0.1082E-01 3.666 0.000 0.248 0.4330 0.7861 GDPGROW 0.85501E-01 0.2014E-01 4.244 0.000 0.284 0.3214 0.1375 SOVIET 0.48900 0.1217 4.017 0.000 0.270 0.4278 0.2969 SURFMISS 0.20300E-03 0.1029E-02 0.1972 0.844 0.014 0.0126 0.0147 LIT79 -0.52376E-02 0.1599E-02 -3.275 0.001-0.223 -0.3100 -1.2869 CONSTANT -15.392 10.46 -1.472 0.143-0.102 0.0000 -47.3798 |_* |_* P(Econ=0) |_test |_ test pop=0 |_ test scale79=0 |_ test coal80=0 |_ test coalgrow=0 |_ test inc79=0 |_ test gdpgrow=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 4.1422434 WITH 6 AND 205 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00060 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 24.853460 WITH 6 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00036 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.24142 |_* P(Soc=0) |_test |_ test surfmiss=0 |_ test lit79=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 5.3766778 WITH 2 AND 205 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00530 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 10.753356 WITH 2 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00462 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.18599 |_* P(Econ=Soc=Sov=0) |_test |_ test pop=0 |_ test scale79=0 |_ test coal80=0 |_ test coalgrow=0 |_ test inc79=0 |_ test gdpgrow=0 |_ test surfmiss=0 |_ test lit79=0 |_ test soviet=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 3.2133248 WITH 9 AND 205 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00115 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 28.919924 WITH 9 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00067 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.31120 |_* |_********************************************************** |_* |_* Table 4 Column 2: Gridded Data |_* |_********************************************************** |_* |_skipif(gtrend.eq.-99) |_ols gtrend press water cosablat REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 76 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 205 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= GTREND ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 R-SQUARE = 0.2964 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.2859 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.40025E-01 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.20006 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 8.0451 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.27010 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 41.0072 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 201 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.61412E-02 0.3286E-02 1.869 0.063 0.131 0.1131 23.0818 WATER 0.11781E-01 0.2820E-01 0.4177 0.677 0.029 0.0249 0.0209 COSABLAT -0.63038 0.7390E-01 -8.531 0.000-0.516 -0.5129 -1.7949 CONSTANT -5.4851 3.348 -1.638 0.103-0.115 0.0000 -20.3078 |_* |_* |_ols gtrend press water cosablat & | pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & | soviet gamiss lit79 /hetcov coef=bb REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 92 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 205 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= GTREND ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 USING HETEROSKEDASTICITY-CONSISTENT COVARIANCE MATRIX R-SQUARE = 0.3818 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.3432 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.36818E-01 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.19188 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 7.0691 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.27010 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 54.2635 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 192 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.11198E-01 0.3757E-02 2.980 0.003 0.210 0.2062 42.0890 WATER 0.29928E-02 0.2932E-01 0.1021 0.919 0.007 0.0063 0.0053 COSABLAT -0.60222 0.9790E-01 -6.151 0.000-0.406 -0.4900 -1.7147 POP -0.19832E-02 0.1792E-02 -1.107 0.270-0.080 -0.1295 -0.0456 SCALE79 0.12450E-02 0.2571E-02 0.4842 0.629 0.035 0.0839 0.0259 COAL80 -0.30882 0.7509E-01 -4.112 0.000-0.285 -0.3056 -0.1501 COALGROW 0.50116E-03 0.2111E-02 0.2374 0.813 0.017 0.0116 0.0021 INC79 0.17876E-01 0.4938E-02 3.620 0.000 0.253 0.3824 0.4344 GDPGROW 0.26211E-01 0.1014E-01 2.586 0.010 0.183 0.1868 0.0598 SOVIET 0.12853 0.6615E-01 1.943 0.053 0.139 0.2093 0.0859 GAMISS -0.34208E-02 0.6837E-02 -0.5003 0.617-0.036 -0.0388 -0.0124 LIT79 -0.26186E-02 0.8211E-03 -3.189 0.002-0.224 -0.3042 -0.7701 CONSTANT -10.536 3.795 -2.777 0.006-0.196 0.0000 -39.0094 |_* |_* |_* P(Econ=0) |_test |_ test pop=0 |_ test scale79=0 |_ test coal80=0 |_ test coalgrow=0 |_ test inc79=0 |_ test gdpgrow=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 5.0476379 WITH 6 AND 192 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00008 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 30.285828 WITH 6 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00003 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.19811 |_* P(Soc=0) |_test |_ test gamiss=0 |_ test lit79=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 5.1210295 WITH 2 AND 192 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00681 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 10.242059 WITH 2 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00597 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.19527 |_* P(Econ=Soc=Sov=0) |_test |_ test pop=0 |_ test scale79=0 |_ test coal80=0 |_ test coalgrow=0 |_ test inc79=0 |_ test gdpgrow=0 |_ test gamiss=0 |_ test lit79=0 |_ test soviet=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 3.8476499 WITH 9 AND 192 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00017 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 34.628849 WITH 9 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00007 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.25990 |_* |_********************************************************** |_* |_* Table 8: The "True" Temperature Trends |_* |_********************************************************** |_* |_* remove economic effects |_* |_genr rmvecon=bb:1*press+bb:2*water+bb:3*cosablat & | +bb:10*soviet+bb:11*gamiss+bb:12*lit79+bb:13 |_* |_* remove social effects |_* |_genr rmvsoc=bb:1*press+bb:2*water+bb:3*cosablat & | +bb:10*soviet+bb:12*99+bb:13 |_* |_* remove Soviet effects |_* |_genr rmvsov=bb:1*press+bb:2*water+bb:3*cosablat & | +bb:12*99+bb:13 |_* |_* set income to sample mean (6.44) |_* |_genr meaninc=bb:1*press+bb:2*water+bb:3*cosablat & | +bb:8*6.44+bb:12*99+bb:13 |_* |_stat gtrend rmvecon rmvsoc rmvsov meaninc /pcor NAME N MEAN ST. DEV VARIANCE MINIMUM MAXIMUM GTREND 205 0.27010 0.23676 0.56053E-01 -0.47000 0.91000 RMVECON 205 0.18192 0.13458 0.18112E-01 -0.65084E-01 0.53955 RMVSOC 205 0.13404 0.16524 0.27305E-01 -0.10443 0.54770 RMVSOV 205 0.11084 0.13331 0.17771E-01 -0.10443 0.48036 MEANINC 205 0.22597 0.13331 0.17771E-01 0.10691E-01 0.59548 CORRELATION MATRIX OF VARIABLES - 205 OBSERVATIONS GTREND 1.0000 RMVECON 0.47927 1.0000 RMVSOC 0.50673 0.90694 1.0000 RMVSOV 0.53656 0.85733 0.96741 1.0000 MEANINC 0.53656 0.85733 0.96741 1.0000 1.0000 GTREND RMVECON RMVSOC RMVSOV MEANINC |_* |_* |_* |_* |_* |_********************************************************************* |_********************************************************************* |_* |_* Table 5: Subsamples in Wealthy and Poor Regions |_* |_********************************************************************* |_********************************************************************* |_*qq |_* |_*********************************************************** |_* |_* Table 5 Columns 1-2 Wealthy regions |_* |_*********************************************************** |_* |_* Wealthy, Station Data |_* |_delete skip$ VARIABLE SKIP$ IS DELETED 218 WORDS RELEASED |_skipif(inc79.lt.6) |_ols strend press water cosablat REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 77 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 80 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= STREND ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 R-SQUARE = 0.2685 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.2397 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.18263 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.42736 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 13.880 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.40672 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = -43.4527 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 76 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.48134E-01 0.1194E-01 4.032 0.000 0.420 0.4904 120.0809 WATER 0.28411E-01 0.1026 0.2770 0.783 0.032 0.0284 0.0428 COSABLAT -1.6150 0.3201 -5.045 0.000-0.501 -0.6016 -2.7252 CONSTANT -47.342 12.01 -3.942 0.000-0.412 0.0000 -116.3985 |_* |_ols strend press water cosablat & | pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & | surfmiss lit79 /hetcov REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 83 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 80 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= STREND ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 USING HETEROSKEDASTICITY-CONSISTENT COVARIANCE MATRIX R-SQUARE = 0.3482 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.2428 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.18189 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.42648 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 12.368 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.40672 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = -38.8396 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 68 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.41319E-01 0.2768E-01 1.493 0.140 0.178 0.4210 103.0803 WATER 0.75167E-01 0.9618E-01 0.7815 0.437 0.094 0.0752 0.1132 COSABLAT -1.3005 0.4286 -3.034 0.003-0.345 -0.4845 -2.1945 POP -0.13199E-02 0.4711E-02 -0.2801 0.780-0.034 -0.0606 -0.0349 SCALE79 0.16259E-02 0.4792E-02 0.3393 0.735 0.041 0.0790 0.0508 COAL80 -0.28636 0.2539 -1.128 0.263-0.136 -0.1773 -0.1529 COALGROW -0.36001E-01 0.1149E-01 -3.135 0.003-0.355 -0.2813 -0.0246 INC79 0.25687E-01 0.3305E-01 0.7772 0.440 0.094 0.1921 0.7524 GDPGROW 0.39350E-01 0.6888E-01 0.5713 0.570 0.069 0.1187 0.1095 SURFMISS -0.53935E-02 0.4569E-02 -1.180 0.242-0.142 -0.1782 -0.1505 LIT79 0.15399E-02 0.5743E-02 0.2681 0.789 0.032 0.0234 0.3659 CONSTANT -41.044 27.82 -1.475 0.145-0.176 0.0000 -100.9147 |_* |_* |_test |_ test pop=0 |_ test scale79=0 |_ test coal80=0 |_ test coalgrow=0 |_ test inc79=0 |_ test gdpgrow=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 2.4888107 WITH 6 AND 68 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.03093 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 14.932864 WITH 6 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.02079 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.40180 |_* |_test |_ test surfmiss=0 |_ test lit79=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 0.75182888 WITH 2 AND 68 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.47538 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 1.5036578 WITH 2 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.47150 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 1.00000 |_* |_* |_* Wealthy, Gridded Data |_* |_delete skip$ VARIABLE SKIP$ IS DELETED 218 WORDS RELEASED |_skipif(inc79.lt.6) |_skipif(gtrend.eq.-99) |_ols gtrend press water cosablat REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 77 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 79 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= GTREND ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 R-SQUARE = 0.4341 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.4115 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.38815E-01 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.19702 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 2.9111 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.32051 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 18.2894 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 75 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.23015E-01 0.6425E-02 3.582 0.001 0.382 0.3734 72.8836 WATER -0.50949E-01 0.4746E-01 -1.073 0.287-0.123 -0.0975 -0.0966 COSABLAT -1.1175 0.1479 -7.558 0.000-0.658 -0.7698 -2.4122 CONSTANT -22.235 6.478 -3.432 0.001-0.368 0.0000 -69.3748 |_* |_ols gtrend press water cosablat & | pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & | gamiss lit79 /hetcov REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 83 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 79 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= GTREND ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 USING HETEROSKEDASTICITY-CONSISTENT COVARIANCE MATRIX R-SQUARE = 0.5602 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.4880 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.33765E-01 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.18375 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 2.2622 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.32051 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 28.2511 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 67 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.19035E-01 0.6282E-02 3.030 0.003 0.347 0.3088 60.2806 WATER -0.27340E-01 0.5512E-01 -0.4960 0.622-0.060 -0.0523 -0.0518 COSABLAT -0.79115 0.1830 -4.323 0.000-0.467 -0.5450 -1.7078 POP 0.41949E-03 0.3002E-02 0.1397 0.889 0.017 0.0369 0.0142 SCALE79 -0.70706E-03 0.3474E-02 -0.2036 0.839-0.025 -0.0659 -0.0284 COAL80 -0.42128 0.1149 -3.668 0.000-0.409 -0.4993 -0.2891 COALGROW -0.14680E-01 0.3992E-02 -3.677 0.000-0.410 -0.2203 -0.0129 INC79 0.39886E-01 0.1218E-01 3.274 0.002 0.371 0.5722 1.4850 GDPGROW 0.59131E-01 0.2773E-01 2.132 0.037 0.252 0.3422 0.2072 GAMISS -0.11942E-01 0.8568E-02 -1.394 0.168-0.168 -0.0597 -0.0090 LIT79 -0.32850E-02 0.3310E-02 -0.9926 0.324-0.120 -0.0960 -0.9903 CONSTANT -18.557 6.328 -2.932 0.005-0.337 0.0000 -57.8978 |_* |_* |_test |_ test pop=0 |_ test scale79=0 |_ test coal80=0 |_ test coalgrow=0 |_ test inc79=0 |_ test gdpgrow=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 5.4179603 WITH 6 AND 67 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00013 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 32.507762 WITH 6 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00001 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.18457 |_* |_test |_ test gamiss=0 |_ test lit79=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 1.7037365 WITH 2 AND 67 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.18979 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 3.4074730 WITH 2 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.18200 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.58695 |_* |_* |_* |_*********************************************************** |_* |_* Table 5 Columns 3-4: Poor Regions |_* |_*********************************************************** |_* |_* Poor, Station Data |_* |_delete skip$ VARIABLE SKIP$ IS DELETED 218 WORDS RELEASED |_skipif(inc79.ge.6) |_ols strend press water cosablat REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 80 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 138 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= STREND ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 R-SQUARE = 0.1359 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.1166 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.16301 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.40375 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 21.844 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.27740 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = -68.6234 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 134 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.98845E-02 0.7512E-02 1.316 0.190 0.113 0.1150 36.1688 WATER 0.14605 0.7111E-01 2.054 0.042 0.175 0.1665 0.2060 COSABLAT -0.61720 0.1876 -3.290 0.001-0.273 -0.2900 -1.7984 CONSTANT -9.3143 7.686 -1.212 0.228-0.104 0.0000 -33.5764 |_* |_ols strend press water cosablat & | pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & | soviet surfmiss lit79 /hetcov REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 91 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 138 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= STREND ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 USING HETEROSKEDASTICITY-CONSISTENT COVARIANCE MATRIX R-SQUARE = 0.3322 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.2681 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.13505 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.36749 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 16.881 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.27740 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = -50.8405 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 125 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.11757E-01 0.6467E-02 1.818 0.071 0.160 0.1368 43.0202 WATER 0.13090 0.6294E-01 2.080 0.040 0.183 0.1493 0.1846 COSABLAT -0.11503 0.4204 -0.2736 0.785-0.024 -0.0540 -0.3352 POP 0.50745E-02 0.4398E-02 1.154 0.251 0.103 0.0793 0.0552 SCALE79 0.11972E-01 0.1911E-01 0.6264 0.532 0.056 0.0554 0.0420 COAL80 -0.43110 0.3670 -1.175 0.242-0.104 -0.1586 -0.1255 COALGROW 0.12270E-02 0.4485E-02 0.2736 0.785 0.024 0.0175 0.0065 INC79 -0.10591E-01 0.3267E-01 -0.3241 0.746-0.029 -0.0484 -0.1246 GDPGROW 0.63976E-01 0.1947E-01 3.286 0.001 0.282 0.2600 0.0390 SOVIET 0.68191 0.1690 4.034 0.000 0.339 0.7379 0.7660 SURFMISS 0.77747E-03 0.1013E-02 0.7676 0.444 0.068 0.0565 0.0858 LIT79 -0.33595E-02 0.1977E-02 -1.700 0.092-0.150 -0.2293 -0.8484 CONSTANT -11.586 6.594 -1.757 0.081-0.155 0.0000 -41.7655 |_* |_* |_test |_ test pop=0 |_ test scale79=0 |_ test coal80=0 |_ test coalgrow=0 |_ test inc79=0 |_ test gdpgrow=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 5.0056375 WITH 6 AND 125 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00013 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 30.033825 WITH 6 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00004 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.19977 |_* |_test |_ test surfmiss=0 |_ test lit79=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 1.7187620 WITH 2 AND 125 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.18350 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 3.4375241 WITH 2 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.17929 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.58181 |_* |_* |_* |_* Poor, Gridded Data |_* |_delete skip$ VARIABLE SKIP$ IS DELETED 218 WORDS RELEASED |_skipif(inc79.ge.6) |_skipif(gtrend.eq.-99) |_ols gtrend press water cosablat REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 80 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 126 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= GTREND ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 R-SQUARE = 0.2551 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.2367 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.36416E-01 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.19083 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 4.4428 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.23849 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 31.9488 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 122 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.40753E-02 0.4704E-02 0.8663 0.388 0.078 0.0838 17.3489 WATER 0.47755E-01 0.3552E-01 1.344 0.181 0.121 0.1074 0.0795 COSABLAT -0.53491 0.1148 -4.659 0.000-0.389 -0.4575 -1.8334 CONSTANT -3.4808 4.830 -0.7206 0.473-0.065 0.0000 -14.5949 |_* |_ols gtrend press water cosablat & | pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & | soviet gamiss lit79 /hetcov REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 89 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 126 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= GTREND ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 USING HETEROSKEDASTICITY-CONSISTENT COVARIANCE MATRIX R-SQUARE = 0.3374 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.2670 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.34971E-01 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.18700 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 3.9517 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.23849 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 39.3283 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 113 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.53712E-02 0.4634E-02 1.159 0.249 0.108 0.1104 22.8658 WATER 0.50948E-01 0.3368E-01 1.513 0.133 0.141 0.1146 0.0848 COSABLAT -0.76296 0.2164 -3.526 0.001-0.315 -0.6526 -2.6151 POP -0.61793E-02 0.2223E-02 -2.780 0.006-0.253 -0.1971 -0.0847 SCALE79 0.18815E-01 0.1160E-01 1.622 0.108 0.151 0.1773 0.0838 COAL80 -0.36446 0.1554 -2.345 0.021-0.215 -0.2569 -0.1158 COALGROW 0.34799E-02 0.2457E-02 1.416 0.160 0.132 0.0997 0.0242 INC79 -0.16188E-01 0.1484E-01 -1.091 0.278-0.102 -0.1433 -0.2169 GDPGROW 0.15517E-01 0.1152E-01 1.346 0.181 0.126 0.1231 0.0194 SOVIET 0.11987 0.8136E-01 1.473 0.143 0.137 0.2509 0.1476 GAMISS -0.98015E-03 0.7401E-02 -0.1324 0.895-0.012 -0.0143 -0.0059 LIT79 -0.90481E-03 0.9198E-03 -0.9837 0.327-0.092 -0.1240 -0.2605 CONSTANT -4.5139 4.729 -0.9546 0.342-0.089 0.0000 -18.9267 |_* |_* |_test |_ test pop=0 |_ test scale79=0 |_ test coal80=0 |_ test coalgrow=0 |_ test inc79=0 |_ test gdpgrow=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 3.4546096 WITH 6 AND 113 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00359 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 20.727658 WITH 6 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00205 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.28947 |_* |_test |_ test gamiss=0 |_ test lit79=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 0.48447167 WITH 2 AND 113 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.61730 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 0.96894334 WITH 2 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.61602 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 1.00000 |_* |_* |_********************************************************************* |_********************************************************************* |_* |_* Table 6: Cold/Warm, Global/Dry for GRIDDED DATA |_* |_********************************************************************* |_********************************************************************* |_* |_*********************************************************** |_* |_* Table 6 Cols 1-2: Cold Season |_* |_*********************************************************** |_* |_* |_* Cold, Global Sample |_* |_delete skip$ VARIABLE SKIP$ IS DELETED 218 WORDS RELEASED |_skipif(gcold.eq.-99) |_ols gcold press water cosablat REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 83 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 206 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= GCOLD ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 R-SQUARE = 0.1913 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.1793 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.65389E-01 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.25571 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 13.209 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.28204 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = -9.35991 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 202 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.91406E-02 0.4184E-02 2.185 0.030 0.152 0.1415 32.9015 WATER 0.18868E-01 0.3599E-01 0.5242 0.601 0.037 0.0335 0.0318 COSABLAT -0.57232 0.9444E-01 -6.060 0.000-0.392 -0.3896 -1.5605 CONSTANT -8.5663 4.263 -2.009 0.046-0.140 0.0000 -30.3727 |_* |_ols gcold press water cosablat & | pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & | soviet gcmiss lit79 /hetcov REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 99 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 206 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= GCOLD ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 USING HETEROSKEDASTICITY-CONSISTENT COVARIANCE MATRIX R-SQUARE = 0.2866 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.2423 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.60374E-01 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.24571 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 11.652 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.28204 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 3.55386 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 193 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.10899E-01 0.4509E-02 2.417 0.017 0.171 0.1687 39.2288 WATER 0.23822E-01 0.3569E-01 0.6674 0.505 0.048 0.0422 0.0402 COSABLAT -0.52864 0.1431 -3.695 0.000-0.257 -0.3599 -1.4414 POP -0.78719E-03 0.2219E-02 -0.3548 0.723-0.026 -0.0430 -0.0172 SCALE79 -0.18476E-03 0.3296E-02 -0.5606E-01 0.955-0.004 -0.0104 -0.0037 COAL80 0.55528E-02 0.1140 0.4871E-01 0.961 0.004 0.0046 0.0026 COALGROW 0.22683E-02 0.2717E-02 0.8348 0.405 0.060 0.0440 0.0089 INC79 0.23581E-01 0.7217E-02 3.268 0.001 0.229 0.4221 0.5484 GDPGROW 0.22521E-01 0.1422E-01 1.584 0.115 0.113 0.1349 0.0484 SOVIET 0.84050E-01 0.7629E-01 1.102 0.272 0.079 0.1158 0.0550 GCMISS -0.29705E-02 0.1397E-01 -0.2126 0.832-0.015 -0.0158 -0.0059 LIT79 -0.33670E-02 0.9683E-03 -3.477 0.001-0.243 -0.3276 -0.9494 CONSTANT -10.299 4.542 -2.267 0.024-0.161 0.0000 -36.5147 |_* |_* |_test |_ test pop=0 |_ test scale79=0 |_ test coal80=0 |_ test coalgrow=0 |_ test inc79=0 |_ test gdpgrow=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 2.9121851 WITH 6 AND 193 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00966 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 17.473111 WITH 6 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00769 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.34338 |_* |_* |_test |_ test gcmiss=0 |_ test lit79=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 6.1825714 WITH 2 AND 193 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00250 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 12.365143 WITH 2 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00207 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.16174 |_* |_* |_* |_* Cold, Dry Region Sample |_* |_delete skip$ VARIABLE SKIP$ IS DELETED 218 WORDS RELEASED |_skipif(gcold.eq.-99) |_skipif(dpress.eq.0) |_ols gcold press water cosablat REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 77 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 60 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= GCOLD ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 R-SQUARE = 0.0368 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = -0.0148 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.11452 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.33841 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 6.4133 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.49100 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = -18.0573 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 56 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.34355E-02 0.9726E-02 0.3532 0.725 0.047 0.0526 7.1170 WATER 0.12456 0.8881E-01 1.403 0.166 0.184 0.1853 0.1099 COSABLAT -0.10079 0.2936 -0.3433 0.733-0.046 -0.0510 -0.1166 CONSTANT -3.0002 9.820 -0.3055 0.761-0.041 0.0000 -6.1103 |_* |_ols gcold press water cosablat & | pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & | soviet gcmiss lit79 /hetcov REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 82 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 60 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= GCOLD ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 USING HETEROSKEDASTICITY-CONSISTENT COVARIANCE MATRIX R-SQUARE = 0.3623 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.1995 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.90338E-01 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.30056 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 4.2459 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.49100 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = -5.68434 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 47 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.25524E-01 0.9069E-02 2.815 0.007 0.380 0.3906 52.8744 WATER 0.42129E-01 0.1061 0.3972 0.693 0.058 0.0627 0.0372 COSABLAT -0.41403 0.2698 -1.535 0.132-0.218 -0.2095 -0.4790 POP -0.20213E-01 0.1189E-01 -1.700 0.096-0.241 -0.6998 -0.2593 SCALE79 0.92499E-02 0.8331E-02 1.110 0.273 0.160 0.4904 0.1495 COAL80 -0.30170E-01 0.1846 -0.1634 0.871-0.024 -0.0258 -0.0179 COALGROW -0.14562E-01 0.1552E-01 -0.9384 0.353-0.136 -0.1928 0.0501 INC79 0.38840E-01 0.3150E-01 1.233 0.224 0.177 0.5681 0.7208 GDPGROW 0.88738E-02 0.5669E-01 0.1565 0.876 0.023 0.0399 0.0035 SOVIET -0.79073E-01 0.3141 -0.2517 0.802-0.037 -0.1184 -0.0752 GCMISS -0.54489E-01 0.3497E-01 -1.558 0.126-0.222 -0.2480 -0.0703 LIT79 -0.13849E-02 0.1478E-01 -0.9369E-01 0.926-0.014 -0.0324 -0.2721 CONSTANT -25.366 9.789 -2.591 0.013-0.354 0.0000 -51.6619 |_* |_* |_test |_ test pop=0 |_ test scale79=0 |_ test coal80=0 |_ test coalgrow=0 |_ test inc79=0 |_ test gdpgrow=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 1.5192186 WITH 6 AND 47 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.19265 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 9.1153116 WITH 6 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.16720 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.65823 |_* |_* |_test |_ test gcmiss=0 |_ test lit79=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 1.2838377 WITH 2 AND 47 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.28651 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 2.5676754 WITH 2 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.27697 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.77891 |_* |_* |_* |_*********************************************************** |_* |_* Table 6 Cols 3-4: Warm Season |_* |_*********************************************************** |_* |_* |_* Warm, Global Sample |_* |_delete skip$ VARIABLE SKIP$ IS DELETED 218 WORDS RELEASED |_skipif(gwarm.eq.-99) |_ols gwarm press water cosablat REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 84 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 209 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= GWARM ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 R-SQUARE = 0.2504 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.2394 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.58753E-01 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.24239 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 12.044 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.25866 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 1.65711 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 205 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.60568E-02 0.3964E-02 1.528 0.128 0.106 0.0946 23.7701 WATER -0.10475E-02 0.3386E-01 -0.3094E-01 0.975-0.002 -0.0019 -0.0019 COSABLAT -0.69000 0.8926E-01 -7.730 0.000-0.475 -0.4754 -2.0676 CONSTANT -5.3544 4.039 -1.326 0.186-0.092 0.0000 -20.7006 |_* |_ols gwarm press water cosablat & | pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & | soviet gwmiss lit79 /hetcov REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 99 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 209 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= GWARM ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 USING HETEROSKEDASTICITY-CONSISTENT COVARIANCE MATRIX R-SQUARE = 0.3793 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.3413 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.50881E-01 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.22557 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 9.9727 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.25866 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 21.3810 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 196 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.13930E-01 0.4259E-02 3.271 0.001 0.227 0.2175 54.6680 WATER -0.10930E-01 0.3326E-01 -0.3286 0.743-0.023 -0.0197 -0.0202 COSABLAT -0.72473 0.1083 -6.693 0.000-0.431 -0.4993 -2.1717 POP -0.22885E-02 0.1799E-02 -1.272 0.205-0.090 -0.1263 -0.0539 SCALE79 0.16013E-02 0.2460E-02 0.6510 0.516 0.046 0.0911 0.0341 COAL80 -0.42823 0.9532E-01 -4.493 0.000-0.306 -0.3577 -0.2102 COALGROW -0.70085E-03 0.2639E-02 -0.2655 0.791-0.019 -0.0137 -0.0033 INC79 0.11984E-01 0.6075E-02 1.973 0.050 0.140 0.2174 0.3007 GDPGROW 0.22042E-01 0.1173E-01 1.879 0.062 0.133 0.1328 0.0513 SOVIET 0.10997 0.7186E-01 1.530 0.128 0.109 0.1514 0.0753 GWMISS -0.23896E-01 0.8221E-02 -2.907 0.004-0.203 -0.1507 -0.0530 LIT79 -0.26380E-02 0.8700E-03 -3.032 0.003-0.212 -0.2585 -0.8102 CONSTANT -13.142 4.308 -3.051 0.003-0.213 0.0000 -50.8069 |_* |_* |_test |_ test pop=0 |_ test scale79=0 |_ test coal80=0 |_ test coalgrow=0 |_ test inc79=0 |_ test gdpgrow=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 4.1621493 WITH 6 AND 196 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00058 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 24.972896 WITH 6 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00035 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.24026 |_* |_* |_test |_ test gwmiss=0 |_ test lit79=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 12.807092 WITH 2 AND 196 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00001 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 25.614184 WITH 2 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00000 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.07808 |_* |_* |_* |_* Warm, Dry Region Sample |_* |_delete skip$ VARIABLE SKIP$ IS DELETED 218 WORDS RELEASED |_skipif(gwarm.eq.-99) |_skipif(dpress.eq.0) |_ols gwarm press water cosablat REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 76 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 59 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= GWARM ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 R-SQUARE = 0.2142 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.1714 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.59950E-01 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.24485 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 3.2972 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.35915 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 1.37402 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 55 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.79065E-02 0.7084E-02 1.116 0.269 0.149 0.1523 22.3911 WATER 0.51933E-01 0.6472E-01 0.8024 0.426 0.108 0.0967 0.0637 COSABLAT -0.78627 0.2160 -3.641 0.001-0.441 -0.4968 -1.2499 CONSTANT -7.2567 7.150 -1.015 0.315-0.136 0.0000 -20.2050 |_* |_ols gwarm press water cosablat & | pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & | soviet gwmiss lit79 /hetcov REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 82 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 59 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= GWARM ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 USING HETEROSKEDASTICITY-CONSISTENT COVARIANCE MATRIX R-SQUARE = 0.3698 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.2054 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.57492E-01 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.23978 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 2.6446 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.35915 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 7.88018 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 46 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.11158E-01 0.9434E-02 1.183 0.243 0.172 0.2149 31.5983 WATER -0.25105E-01 0.6619E-01 -0.3793 0.706-0.056 -0.0467 -0.0308 COSABLAT -0.70258 0.2773 -2.534 0.015-0.350 -0.4439 -1.1169 POP -0.74696E-02 0.1041E-01 -0.7175 0.477-0.105 -0.3249 -0.1332 SCALE79 0.70687E-02 0.6917E-02 1.022 0.312 0.149 0.4712 0.1588 COAL80 -0.44463 0.1722 -2.582 0.013-0.356 -0.4777 -0.3581 COALGROW 0.84662E-02 0.1091E-01 0.7761 0.442 0.114 0.1405 -0.0385 INC79 -0.48346E-03 0.2555E-01 -0.1892E-01 0.985-0.003 -0.0089 -0.0123 GDPGROW 0.51208E-01 0.3619E-01 1.415 0.164 0.204 0.2866 0.0322 SOVIET 0.12480 0.2562 0.4871 0.629 0.072 0.2331 0.1590 GWMISS 0.18676E-01 0.2483E-01 0.7521 0.456 0.110 0.1008 0.0308 LIT79 -0.44144E-02 0.1201E-01 -0.3676 0.715-0.054 -0.1300 -1.1852 CONSTANT -10.094 10.05 -1.004 0.321-0.146 0.0000 -28.1042 |_* |_* |_test |_ test pop=0 |_ test scale79=0 |_ test coal80=0 |_ test coalgrow=0 |_ test inc79=0 |_ test gdpgrow=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 2.4420672 WITH 6 AND 46 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.03920 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 14.652403 WITH 6 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.02314 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.40949 |_* |_* |_test |_ test gwmiss=0 |_ test lit79=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 0.30533184 WITH 2 AND 46 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.73836 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 0.61066367 WITH 2 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.73688 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 1.00000 |_* |_* |_* |_* |_*********************************************************** |_*********************************************************** |_* |_** Table 7: Specification Tests |_* |_*********************************************************** |_*********************************************************** |_* |_* |_*********************************************************** |_* |_* Col 2: Globe without outliers |_* |_*********************************************************** |_* |_delete skip$ VARIABLE SKIP$ IS DELETED 218 WORDS RELEASED |_skipif(gtrend.eq.-99) |_* |_?ols gtrend press water cosablat & | pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & | soviet gamiss lit79 & | / coef=bb resid=es hatdiag=hh |_genr inf=2*($k)/($n) ..NOTE..CURRENT VALUE OF $K = 13.000 ..NOTE..CURRENT VALUE OF $N = 205.00 |_skipif(hh.ge.inf) |_* |_* |_ols gtrend press water cosablat REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 88 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 191 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= GTREND ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 R-SQUARE = 0.3278 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.3170 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.37481E-01 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.19360 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 7.0090 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.27471 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 44.6182 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 187 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.66082E-02 0.3361E-02 1.966 0.051 0.142 0.1199 24.4150 WATER 0.12817E-01 0.2831E-01 0.4527 0.651 0.033 0.0274 0.0222 COSABLAT -0.65725 0.7378E-01 -8.908 0.000-0.546 -0.5414 -1.8381 CONSTANT -5.9335 3.422 -1.734 0.085-0.126 0.0000 -21.5991 |_* |_ols gtrend press water cosablat & | pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & | soviet gamiss lit79 /hetcov REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 102 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 191 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= GTREND ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 USING HETEROSKEDASTICITY-CONSISTENT COVARIANCE MATRIX R-SQUARE = 0.3994 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.3589 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.35180E-01 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.18756 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 6.2621 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.27471 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 55.3785 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 178 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.96300E-02 0.3889E-02 2.476 0.014 0.182 0.1747 35.5795 WATER 0.10691E-01 0.3004E-01 0.3560 0.722 0.027 0.0229 0.0185 COSABLAT -0.57640 0.1134 -5.081 0.000-0.356 -0.4748 -1.6120 POP -0.14501E-02 0.3527E-02 -0.4112 0.681-0.031 -0.0433 -0.0211 SCALE79 0.80303E-03 0.3013E-02 0.2665 0.790 0.020 0.0323 0.0108 COAL80 -0.28464 0.8935E-01 -3.186 0.002-0.232 -0.2787 -0.1287 COALGROW 0.88076E-03 0.2274E-02 0.3873 0.699 0.029 0.0206 0.0040 INC79 0.20484E-01 0.6462E-02 3.170 0.002 0.231 0.4263 0.4784 GDPGROW 0.24517E-01 0.1122E-01 2.185 0.030 0.162 0.1634 0.0589 SOVIET 0.15550 0.6935E-01 2.242 0.026 0.166 0.2575 0.1037 GAMISS -0.96107E-04 0.9117E-02 -0.1054E-01 0.992-0.001 -0.0007 -0.0002 LIT79 -0.27388E-02 0.8631E-03 -3.173 0.002-0.231 -0.3282 -0.7881 CONSTANT -8.9841 3.931 -2.285 0.023-0.169 0.0000 -32.7037 |_* |_test |_ test pop=0 |_ test scale79=0 |_ test coal80=0 |_ test coalgrow=0 |_ test inc79=0 |_ test gdpgrow=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 2.9985318 WITH 6 AND 178 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00815 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 17.991191 WITH 6 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00625 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.33350 |_* |_test |_ test gamiss=0 |_ test lit79=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 5.0959767 WITH 2 AND 178 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00705 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 10.191953 WITH 2 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00612 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.19623 |_* |_*********************************************************** |_* |_* Column 3: Surf-Trop differences |_* |_*********************************************************** |_* |_delete skip$ VARIABLE SKIP$ IS DELETED 218 WORDS RELEASED |_skipif(gtrend.eq.-99) |_ols stdiff press water cosablat REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 89 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 205 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= STDIFF ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 R-SQUARE = 0.0217 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.0071 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.36756E-01 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.19172 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 7.3880 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.79430E-01 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 49.7412 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 201 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS -0.39927E-02 0.3149E-02 -1.268 0.206-0.089 -0.0905 -51.0285 WATER -0.39421E-01 0.2703E-01 -1.459 0.146-0.102 -0.1026 -0.2373 COSABLAT 0.55200E-01 0.7081E-01 0.7795 0.437 0.055 0.0553 0.5345 CONSTANT 4.1090 3.208 1.281 0.202 0.090 0.0000 51.7313 |_* |_ols stdiff press water cosablat & | pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & | soviet gamiss lit79 /hetcov coef=bb REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 104 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 205 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= STDIFF ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 USING HETEROSKEDASTICITY-CONSISTENT COVARIANCE MATRIX R-SQUARE = 0.1866 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.1358 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.31992E-01 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.17886 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 6.1425 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.79430E-01 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 68.6642 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 192 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.18707E-02 0.3175E-02 0.5893 0.556 0.042 0.0424 23.9085 WATER -0.52667E-02 0.2447E-01 -0.2152 0.830-0.016 -0.0137 -0.0317 COSABLAT -0.33844E-01 0.1061 -0.3190 0.750-0.023 -0.0339 -0.3277 POP -0.18530E-02 0.1608E-02 -1.152 0.251-0.083 -0.1489 -0.1447 SCALE79 0.53801E-03 0.2439E-02 0.2206 0.826 0.016 0.0446 0.0380 COAL80 -0.14423 0.6633E-01 -2.174 0.031-0.155 -0.1756 -0.2384 COALGROW 0.38165E-02 0.2182E-02 1.749 0.082 0.125 0.1088 0.0542 INC79 0.71981E-02 0.4681E-02 1.538 0.126 0.110 0.1895 0.5947 GDPGROW -0.10483E-02 0.9791E-02 -0.1071 0.915-0.008 -0.0092 -0.0081 SOVIET 0.88012E-01 0.5623E-01 1.565 0.119 0.112 0.1764 0.2000 GAMISS 0.13972E-01 0.5134E-02 2.721 0.007 0.193 0.1948 0.1725 LIT79 -0.26650E-02 0.7526E-03 -3.541 0.001-0.248 -0.3809 -2.6651 CONSTANT -1.6325 3.205 -0.5093 0.611-0.037 0.0000 -20.5521 |_* |_* |_test |_ test pop=0 |_ test scale79=0 |_ test coal80=0 |_ test coalgrow=0 |_ test inc79=0 |_ test gdpgrow=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 3.1994433 WITH 6 AND 192 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00513 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 19.196660 WITH 6 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00384 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.31255 |_* |_test |_ test gamiss=0 |_ test lit79=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 9.3980528 WITH 2 AND 192 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00013 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 18.796106 WITH 2 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00008 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.10641 |_* |_*********************************************************** |_* |_* Column 4: Orthogonalized Model |_* |_*********************************************************** |_* |_ols gtrend press water cosablat /resid=xx REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 90 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 205 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= GTREND ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 R-SQUARE = 0.2964 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.2859 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.40025E-01 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.20006 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 8.0451 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.27010 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 41.0072 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 201 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.61412E-02 0.3286E-02 1.869 0.063 0.131 0.1131 23.0818 WATER 0.11781E-01 0.2820E-01 0.4177 0.677 0.029 0.0249 0.0209 COSABLAT -0.63038 0.7390E-01 -8.531 0.000-0.516 -0.5129 -1.7949 CONSTANT -5.4851 3.348 -1.638 0.103-0.115 0.0000 -20.3078 |_* |_ols xx & | pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & | soviet gamiss lit79 /hetcov coef=bb ..WARNING..OBSERVATION 45 OF XX HAS MISSING DATA VALUE=-99999. ..WARNING..OBSERVATION 46 OF XX HAS MISSING DATA VALUE=-99999. ..WARNING..OBSERVATION 47 OF XX HAS MISSING DATA VALUE=-99999. ..WARNING..OBSERVATION 48 OF XX HAS MISSING DATA VALUE=-99999. ..WARNING..OBSERVATION 127 OF XX HAS MISSING DATA VALUE=-99999. ..WARNING..OBSERVATION 131 OF XX HAS MISSING DATA VALUE=-99999. ..WARNING..OBSERVATION 133 OF XX HAS MISSING DATA VALUE=-99999. ..WARNING..OBSERVATION 136 OF XX HAS MISSING DATA VALUE=-99999. ..WARNING..OBSERVATION 141 OF XX HAS MISSING DATA VALUE=-99999. ..WARNING..OBSERVATION 191 OF XX HAS MISSING DATA VALUE=-99999. ..WARNING..OBSERVATION 192 OF XX HAS MISSING DATA VALUE=-99999. ..WARNING..OBSERVATION 217 OF XX HAS MISSING DATA VALUE=-99999. ..WARNING..OBSERVATION 218 OF XX HAS MISSING DATA VALUE=-99999. REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 100 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 205 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= XX ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 218 USING HETEROSKEDASTICITY-CONSISTENT COVARIANCE MATRIX R-SQUARE = 0.1108 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.0698 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.36684E-01 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.19153 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 7.1534 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.31418E-15 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 53.0491 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 195 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS POP -0.19321E-02 0.1841E-02 -1.050 0.295-0.075 -0.1504*********** SCALE79 0.13773E-02 0.2606E-02 0.5286 0.598 0.038 0.1107*********** COAL80 -0.27242 0.7422E-01 -3.670 0.000-0.254 -0.3214*********** COALGROW 0.36415E-03 0.2071E-02 0.1758 0.861 0.013 0.0101*********** INC79 0.16771E-01 0.4712E-02 3.559 0.000 0.247 0.4277*********** GDPGROW 0.24989E-01 0.9625E-02 2.596 0.010 0.183 0.2123*********** SOVIET 0.13710 0.5723E-01 2.396 0.018 0.169 0.2662*********** GAMISS -0.42082E-02 0.6716E-02 -0.6266 0.532-0.045 -0.0568*********** LIT79 -0.25294E-02 0.8146E-03 -3.105 0.002-0.217 -0.3503*********** CONSTANT 0.94450E-01 0.3860E-01 2.447 0.015 0.173 0.0000*********** |_* |_test |_ test pop=0 |_ test scale79=0 |_ test coal80=0 |_ test coalgrow=0 |_ test inc79=0 |_ test gdpgrow=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 4.1659088 WITH 6 AND 195 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00058 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 24.995453 WITH 6 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00034 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.24004 |_* |_test |_ test gamiss=0 |_ test lit79=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 4.8730513 WITH 2 AND 195 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00861 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 9.7461026 WITH 2 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.00765 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.20521 |_* |_* |_* |_*********************************************************** |_* |_* Columnn 5: Predict a withheld sample |_* |_*********************************************************** |_* |_* North and South America |_* |_delete skip$ VARIABLE SKIP$ IS DELETED 218 WORDS RELEASED |_skipif(gtrend.eq.-99) |_sample 1 218 |_genr surfu=1 |_* |_sample 68 218 |_ols gtrend press water cosablat REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 89 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 142 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= GTREND ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 68, 218 R-SQUARE = 0.2620 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.2460 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.38083E-01 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.19515 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 5.2555 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.31141 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 32.5659 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 138 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.49901E-02 0.3591E-02 1.390 0.167 0.117 0.1033 16.2699 WATER 0.49703E-01 0.3350E-01 1.484 0.140 0.125 0.1091 0.0652 COSABLAT -0.54199 0.8605E-01 -6.299 0.000-0.473 -0.4680 -1.3044 CONSTANT -4.3693 3.659 -1.194 0.234-0.101 0.0000 -14.0307 |_* |_ols gtrend press water cosablat & | pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & | soviet gamiss lit79 & | / coef=cc REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 100 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 142 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= GTREND ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 68, 218 R-SQUARE = 0.3584 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.2987 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.35420E-01 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.18820 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 4.5692 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.31141 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 42.5018 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 129 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS PRESS 0.85597E-02 0.4538E-02 1.886 0.062 0.164 0.1772 27.9082 WATER 0.25614E-01 0.3482E-01 0.7357 0.463 0.065 0.0562 0.0336 COSABLAT -0.57117 0.1604 -3.561 0.001-0.299 -0.4932 -1.3746 POP -0.36145E-02 0.3253E-02 -1.111 0.269-0.097 -0.1871 -0.0482 SCALE79 0.56891E-02 0.3776E-02 1.507 0.134 0.132 0.2568 0.0463 COAL80 -0.26568 0.1458 -1.822 0.071-0.158 -0.1732 -0.0671 COALGROW -0.16812E-02 0.3615E-02 -0.4650 0.643-0.041 -0.0458 -0.0058 INC79 0.12124E-01 0.7295E-02 1.662 0.099 0.145 0.2318 0.2080 GDPGROW 0.22705E-01 0.1265E-01 1.795 0.075 0.156 0.1936 0.0355 SOVIET 0.78483E-01 0.7242E-01 1.084 0.281 0.095 0.1538 0.0657 GAMISS -0.77950E-02 0.6371E-02 -1.224 0.223-0.107 -0.0974 -0.0294 LIT79 -0.15877E-02 0.1278E-02 -1.242 0.216-0.109 -0.2176 -0.3773 CONSTANT -7.9082 4.531 -1.745 0.083-0.152 0.0000 -25.3949 |_* |_test |_ test pop=0 |_ test scale79=0 |_ test coal80=0 |_ test coalgrow=0 |_ test inc79=0 |_ test gdpgrow=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 2.2009160 WITH 6 AND 129 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.04693 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 13.205496 WITH 6 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.03989 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.45436 |_* |_test |_ test gamiss=0 |_ test lit79=0 |_end F STATISTIC = 1.3246917 WITH 2 AND 129 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.26948 WALD CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC = 2.6493834 WITH 2 D.F. P-VALUE= 0.26588 UPPER BOUND ON P-VALUE BY CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITY = 0.75489 |_* |_sample 1 67 |_genr surfu=cc:1*press+cc:2*water+cc:3*cosablat+cc:4*pop & | +cc:5*scale79+cc:6*coal80+cc:7*coalgrow+cc:8*inc79 & | +cc:9*gdpgrow+cc:10*soviet+cc:11*gamiss & | +cc:12*lit79+cc:13 |_* |_print gtrend surfu GTREND SURFU 0.3800000 0.5684716 0.4200000 0.5913906 0.8700000 0.7412568 0.5300000 0.6897231 0.8900000 0.6452411 0.6400000 0.5437057 -0.2500000 0.5917987 -0.1200000 0.2007578 0.3800000 0.2484911 0.3700000 0.3124349 0.2000000E-01 0.1427082 0.2700000 0.2863006 0.1700000 0.4032286 0.2600000 0.2831036 0.3800000 0.5535493 0.2700000 0.2972026 0.2700000 0.2588741 0.3400000 0.3745184 0.3400000 0.5135848 0.3500000 0.4350310 0.6400000 0.2996138 0.2000000 0.2716098 0.3100000 0.2641349 0.3600000 0.2814898 0.3800000 0.2634529 0.1900000 0.4430624 0.8000000E-01 0.3712689 -0.2500000 0.2349445 0.1200000 0.1514701 -0.3700000 0.1559932 0.8000000E-01 0.1108173 0.8000000E-01 0.1247600 0.1200000 0.1398220 0.1700000 0.1427489 0.6000000E-01 0.1291114 0.2000000E-01 0.1242277 0.2000000E-01 0.8315789E-01 -0.5000000E-01 0.3516289E-01 0.1700000 0.1684297 0.8000000E-01 0.1446787 0.9000000E-01 0.8608383E-01 0.9000000E-01 0.1704228 0.2600000 0.5161402E-01 0.2600000 0.6699202E-01 0.2100000 0.1102659 0.2000000 0.2806593 0.2800000 -0.1048206E-01 0.6000000E-01 0.2492355 0.6000000E-01 0.2223486 0.6000000E-01 0.2484390 0.2100000 0.2273725 -0.2500000 0.2720204 -0.1000000E-01 0.2609026 -0.1000000E-01 0.2597031 -0.1000000E-01 0.2779703 -0.1000000E-01 0.2841817 -0.4000000E-01 0.2918305 -0.9000000E-01 0.2934302 0.2000000E-01 0.2993654 0.7000000E-01 0.2124128 0.3300000 0.9949166E-01 -0.1000000E-01 0.2525351 0.1900000 0.3498543 |_stat gtrend surfu /pcor NAME N MEAN ST. DEV VARIANCE MINIMUM MAXIMUM GTREND 63 0.17698 0.23844 0.56854E-01 -0.37000 0.89000 SURFU 63 0.27743 0.16638 0.27682E-01 -0.10482E-01 0.74126 CORRELATION MATRIX OF VARIABLES - 63 OBSERVATIONS GTREND 1.0000 SURFU 0.51063 1.0000 GTREND SURFU |_ols gtrend surfu REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 84 CURRENT PAR= 10000 OLS ESTIMATION 63 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= GTREND ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 67 R-SQUARE = 0.2607 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.2486 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.42719E-01 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.20668 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 2.6058 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.17698 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 10.9463 VARIABLE ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY NAME COEFFICIENT ERROR 61 DF P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS SURFU 0.73178 0.1578 4.638 0.000 0.511 0.5106 1.1471 CONSTANT -0.26033E-01 0.5093E-01 -0.5112 0.611-0.065 0.0000 -0.1471 |_* |_stop TYPE COMMAND