One bag contains 2 red balls and 3 white balls. Another bag contains 3 red balls and 2 green balls. One of these bags is chosen at random, and two balls are drawn randomly from that bag, without replacement. Both of the balls turn out to be red. What is the probability that the first bag is the one that was chosen?
Consider these two probability distributions on the same space Ω = {A, B, C, D}
p = ⟨ ½, ¼, ⅛, ⅛ ⟩
q = ⟨ ¼, ⅛, ⅛, ½ ⟩